Caleb Ferguson: Even more than simply an additional lefty

The Yankees turned an apparently small offer the other day, sending pitchers Matt Gage we hardly recognized ye) and Christian Zazueta to the Los Angeles Dodgers for left-handed bottle Caleb Ferguson. Andrew wrote up the details quickly after the trade was announced-- and I'm here to tell you that Ferguson is much better than you may was drafted in the now-extinct 38th round of the 2014 draft, taken by the Dodgers with the 1,149 th pick. It may fascinate you to know that he is far and away the best player taken keeping that choice, and will go down in background therefore preventing some unmitigated catastrophe. As of this writing, Ferguson's 1. 2 bWAR and 2. 1 fWAR are both greater than every other player chosen keeping that pick incorporated. Just how around that?Outside of a 2021 season shed to Tommy John surgical treatment, Ferguson has been a component in the Dodgers bullpen from June of 2018 forward. And he has been a solid reducer on the whole, creating a 3. 43 AGE, 3. 78 FIP, 3. 68 xFIP, and 4. 08 DRA in 207 Custom Jersey. 1 innings pitched throughout five periods. Somewhat extremely, his 2023 production is noticeably close to those occupation standards: a 3. 43 ERA, 3. 34 FIP, 3. 68 xFIP, and 3. 97 DRA. Reducers are infamously unpredictable, so there's something soothing concerning seeing those lines side-by-side. Digging a little bit deeper, Ferguson was above average in a number of key indications last year as he has actually been each year). His 25. 9-percent strikeout price was 3. 2 percent factors above standard, and his 17. 4-percent strikeout minus walk price was 3. 3 percentage points greater. And, while he is not rather as famous a worm burner as a few of his colleagues, his 49. 1 percent ground-ball price was simply under seven factors over average. None of these prices leap out as elite, yet when taken entirely a strong, well-shaped bottle emerges. You can imagine this right here: Baseball Sage One point that does leap out, however, is Ferguson's elite capacity to miss the fat component of the bat. The MLB standard barrel price is normally around 7 percent, and he cut that by four percentage factors-- much much better than the huge majority of pitchers. It had not been just a 1 year fluke, either, as he posted a similarly stout 3. 5-percent barrel rate in 2022. Ferguson has been extremely tough to square-up considering that returning from TJS, possibly owing to an emphasis on finding the best area in the zone for each and every batter. This is probably why the Yankees targeted Ferguson. He is signing up with a bullpen that also features Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loisiga, Ron Marinaccio, Ian Hamilton, and fellow ex-Dodger Victor Gonzlez, every one of whom use small variants of the very same skillset. It's a bullpen that has actually been created with a clear emphasis on batted-ball , it should be noted, does not have much of a platoon split. Only. 019 points of wOBA divided his performance versus righties and lefties in 2015, which is really a tick above the. 015 figure for his career. This will enable the Yankees to slot him in a lot of any circumstance, which is always researching Ferguson, I am specifically fascinated by his heater. Ferguson has actually tossed his four-seamer about two-thirds of the time because returning from surgical treatment. His speed, active spin rate, and movement have actually been fairly regular, as has his place and release of the offering. However, the pitch went from +6 runs and a. 279 xwOBA in 2022 to -3 and. 315, specifically, in 2023. Regardless of this, he was still 22nd among qualified relievers in his well-founded overall performance in 2023 and previous success with the pitch, it makes me wonder if Matt Blake & Co. might coax that high-end fastball manufacturing back out for 2024. And if that were to happen, just how much far better could Ferguson be?